# Which routes to inflation? An analysis of the impact of global shipping cost shocks on import prices and market dynamics.
**Date de l'événement :** 02/06/2024
* Publié le 02/06/2024

### Image(s)
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## Auteur(s)
Justine Nayral

## Direction
Isabelle Méjean

## Description
**Ce mémoire est issu de la sélection des meilleurs mémoires du master d’économie de l'année 2023-2024 :  
  
Abstract  
**  
This paper examines the impact of rising air and maritime transport costs on the prices of imported goods in the European Union during the 2021-2022 inflationary surge. Building a unique dataset on all extra-European imports at the product level, we construct an index of transport shocks based on air and sea freight prices, differentiated by routes and accounting for shock vulnerability. We find that the elasticity at a 1% shock for China on the cost of air and sea transport on cumulative import price changes peaks one year after the shock, around 0.15. Restricting to a sample for which the share of sea and air freight sum to one, after a 1% increase in transport costs, import prices increase on average by 0.24%, 13 months after the shock. The shock lasts for 18 months. Finally, we build a model \`a la Atkeson, Burstein (2008) to explain the incomplete pass-through of transport cost shocks, attributing it to a reallocation of market shares towards domestic firms, which increase their markups, while foreign firms reduce theirs. Our model predicts that a 10% rise in transport costs would lead to a 7-9% increase in domestic price indexes and a 0.9-1.9% rise in foreign price indexes, resulting in an overall aggregate price index increase of 4%.  
  
**Keywords**: Inflation, Transport costs, Supply chain disruption

**Accéder au mémoire en ligne :** [https://www.sciencespo.fr/ecole-recherche/sites/sciencespo.fr.ecole-recherche/files/NAYRAL_Justine.pdf](https://www.sciencespo.fr/ecole-recherche/sites/sciencespo.fr.ecole-recherche/files/NAYRAL_Justine.pdf)

### Type(s) de ressource
`#Texte` 

### Discipline
`#Économie` 

### Thématique(s)
`#Finance / investissement` `#Économies` 

### Aire(s) géographique(s)
`#Europe` 

### Langue(s)
`#Anglais` 

### Famille(s) de contenu
`#Recherche` `#Production étudiante` 

### Type(s) d'accès
`#Accès libre` 

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